文章作者：John Sackton 譯/中國水產頻道 郭金鳳 中國水產頻道獨家報道，EMS是23年來墨西哥對蝦養殖業者遭受的第四次重大爆發性疾病，根據最近的NFI全球海鮮營銷大會的討論結果，EMS的影響是其中最嚴重的一次爆發性疾病，是全行業的重大災難。 2013年11月為止，墨西哥對美國的去頭蝦出口量下降了32.8％。據官方統計，隨著疾病的爆發，對蝦總產量預計從約10萬噸下降到5.5萬噸�，F在看5.5萬噸多少顯得有些樂觀。 EMS已經到達索諾拉，比錫那羅亞州發病情況更為嚴重，索諾拉的養殖者已經采取了更有效措施進行防治。索諾拉州的對蝦產量預計將下降超過66％，而錫那羅亞州產量將下降30％至40％。2009年索諾拉州的對蝦產量達到高峰值，約8.5萬噸，但在2012年，因為疾病問題，很多農民轉養其他品種，使對蝦產量下降到3.5萬噸，并有可能在2013年產量低于1.2萬噸。 明年情況改善的可能性不大。三角洲藍色水產養殖公司（Delta Blue Aquaculture）總裁、NFI會議發言者之一比爾·洪尼格（Bill Hoenig），估計2014年只有約60％的農場會繼續養殖對蝦，即使繼續養殖也只會養一造。 墨西哥國內對蝦市場蝦價飆升，即使是小規模的蝦也暴漲至超過4美元/磅，出口美國的批發價為4.50美元/磅。蝦價達到這個水平的時候，養殖者會毫不猶豫地出蝦，而不會選擇繼續在塘里養下去。 洪尼格說，從長遠來看將會有大量養殖場合并，因為只有有能力的養殖場才能生存下去，而他們會投資收購資金不足的養殖場。 原文： Posted: Friday, January 17, 2014 Mexican shrimp production likely to fall more than expected in 2013, will stay depressed in 2014 SEAFOODNEWS.COM by John Sackton Jan 17, 2014 EMS is the fourth major disease outbreak to hit Mexican shrimp growers in the last 23 years, and according to the discussions at the recent NFI Global Seafood Marketing Conference, it will have the most severe impact yet, and is catastrophic for the industry. Imports of headless shrimp from Mexico to the US are down 32.8% through November. As the disease took hold, total aquaculture shrimp production was expected to fall from about 100,000 tons to 55,000 tons according to official statistics. Now that 55,000 ton number looks optimistic.  Total Mexican farmed shrimp production - Estimate from Conapesca-Sagarpa. 墨西哥養殖對蝦總產量-墨西哥全國水產養殖和漁業委員會數據 The disease has hit Sonora much harder than Sinaloa, where farmers have taken more effective measures. In Sonora, production is expected to fall more than 66%, while in Sinaloa, production will be down between 30% and 40%. Sonora based shrimp production peaked in 2009 at around 85,000 tons, but disease issues and farmers switching to other crops have pushed that number down to 35,000 tons in 2012, and likely lower than 12,000 tons in 2013. Little improvement is expected next year. Bill Hoenig, president of Delta Blue Aquaculture and one of the speakers at the NFI conference, estimated that only about 60% of the farms will even stock next year, and those that do will only do one quick cycle. The strength of the Mexican domestic shrimp market has sent prices for even small size shrimp skyrocketing to over $4.00 a pound in Mexico, and $4.50 wholesale in the U.S. At these prices farmers will harvest small shrimp at the drop of a hat, and not take the risk of keeping shrimp in their ponds if they get the slightest whiff of problems. Over the long term, says Hoenig, there will be substantial consolidation as only those farmers who will invest in more intensive shrimp culture will be able to survive, and they will be buying up the weaker farms, who cannot invest. Further adding to pressure on the shrimp market is that Mexico has become a strong importer of shrimp given the fall off in domestic production. www.Seafood.com是北美最大的漁業信息網站，與《水產前沿》、中國水產頻道已建立合作關系。 【關鍵字】：EMS 墨西哥養蝦業 對蝦養殖 中國水產頻道（m.szsfz.cn ）獨家報道，轉載請說明出處，違者追究法律責任， 謝謝合作。 |
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